Archive for novembro 29th, 2011

Notícia do Dia: Previsões de Colapso Economico da China! Isto é muito sério?

terça-feira, novembro 29th, 2011

A China está fazendo e mais barato todo o trabalho no mundo e deixando os empregados do setor manufatureiro/industrial desempregados no resto do mundo. Ë possivel aquêle gigante ruir? E se ruir, poderoso militarmente como é, assumirá passivamente sua queda passando fome sózinha ou verá na guerra e conquista externa um ultimo lance de sobrevivencia?

Hein? Por isso esse artigo abaixo me chamou mais a atenção hoje:

Predictions of an economic collapse in China are in vogue

Los Angeles Times,0,7099607.story

By David Pierson, Los Angeles Times

November 28, 2011, 5:32 p.m.

Above, an electronic display of the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index in Hong Kong.


Primeiros comentários da Matrix/DNA:

O “The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index”, o qual registra a performance no mercado de ações das maiores companhias estabelecidas na China, caiu 26% nêste ano. E os abutres capitalistas estão lá operando a todo vapor acelerando e esperando a queda final da vitima: a prática do “venda-curta” – apostando que uma ação vai cair de valor – tem se tornado tão perniciosa que analistas definiram a China como ” world’s most crowded short”.

“Há um crescente sentimento que a história da China não faz sentido” – dizem analistas.

E como poderia fazer sentido um sistema que imaginou ser possivel canalizar num curral bilhões de seres humanos para serem meras máquinas produtoras a custo reduzido? Nestas pessoas existem cérebros nos quais existe uma auto-consciência nascendo e forçando o rompimento de todas as barreiras em seu caminho, inclusive vontades de ditadores e capitalistas selvagens do Ocidente que transferiram suas fabricas para lá, para sugarem a energia de seres humanos. Contra a fôrça natural da Evolução o dinheiro e poderio militar nada pode.

xxxx Parei aqui xxxx falta ver os comentários no artigo xxxx

Bears like Chang see slowing GDP growth, rising public debt and stubbornly high inflation as evidence China’s problems are about to get bigger.

Skepticism runs especially deep when it comes to real estate, which represents about a fifth of China’s economic output, by some estimates. In a pattern eerily similar to the U.S. housing boom, easy financing in recent years unleashed a Chinese development frenzy that sent prices soaring. Eager home buyers camped out for the chance to buy into planned developments, sight unseen. The typical 1,000-square-foot apartment in Shanghai costs $335,000, about 45 times the average resident’s annual salary.

Now China’s housing bubble is deflating. Home prices reversed in October for the second consecutive month as cash-strapped developers became desperate to unload homes. An index of 35 major cities showed 29 had experienced a decline in sales from a year ago; sales plunged more than 50% in six of them, including Beijing.

The Chinese government says it’s all part of the plan. After loosening the credit spigot during the financial crisis to keep the economy humming, it’s now tightening lending and clamping down on speculators.

But critics said the damage has been done. Behind China’s gleaming new high-rises, freeways and bullet trains, the bears see ghost towns, empty roads and superfluous rail lines. Public debt has exploded, raising fears of an overload that could weigh on China’s economy.

“A lot of that growth was just state-led investment on a massive scale,” said Victor Shih, a political scientist at Northwestern University and expert on Chinese local government debt who is firmly in the bear camp. “China is a behemoth now. If it gets in trouble, everyone gets in trouble.”

Faced with a growing number of clients worried about China’s prospects, Tao Wang, a Hong Kong-based economist at financial services giant UBS, recently released a research note aimed at calming investors’ fears.

“We have had to refute different arguments about why China is about to collapse or implode every day,” she wrote.

But hardly anyone disputes that China’s current economic model is under pressure.

Its government-backed spending binge isn’t sustainable. And China is feeling the effects of a slowdown in Europe and the U.S., the two largest customers for its exports. Longer term, its days as the world’s low-cost factory floor are threatened by cheaper competitors and a shrinking labor force.

The global economy would benefit if China could rebalance its economy so that its 1.3 billion citizens started spending more. But they can’t because China has structured its economy to favor big businesses over consumers.

Beijing does this by keeping its currency, the yuan, artificially weak. That benefits exporters by making Chinese goods cheap. But a weak yuan fuels inflation at home and makes imported goods expensive. Authorities also keep interest rates low so that state-owned companies get cheap loans. But that means depositors earn puny returns.

It all adds up to less money in the pockets of consumers, said Peking University economist Michael Pettis.

“The repression of consumption is why I never bought the bulls’ story,” Pettis said. “China has to go through an important restructuring of sources of growth that will have very big implications.”

China’s breakneck pace of expansion will inevitably moderate. The question is whether that slowdown will be carefully engineered by China’s government — a scenario Roubini called “mission impossible” — or a harder, more painful landing.

Some say all the hand-wringing is overwrought and that China short-sellers such as Chanos, founder of the New York investment firm Kynikos Associates, have everything to gain by espousing gloom and doom.

“Chanos is a company analyst with no understanding of economics who treats China as if it were a company. It’s not; it’s a country,” said Arthur Kroeber, managing director of the Beijing-based research firm, GaveKal-Dragonomics, in an e-mailed response to questions.

Chanos did not respond to a request for an interview.

Bill Bishop, a closely followed independent tech analyst in Beijing, said that “the pendulum has swung too far” in favor of the bears.

“I think the fears are overblown. People in the U.S. are scared of China, and some people hope it drops,” said Bishop, co-founder of financial news service CBS Market Watch. He described himself as belonging to the “China-will-muddle-through camp.”

That faction says China’s leaders will do what it takes to avoid calamity. Others aren’t so sure.

“The reasonable bulls and bears among us agree on most of the facts,” Northwestern’s Shih said. “But at the end of the day, we disagree on the Chinese government’s ability to make tough changes.”