Archive for novembro 20th, 2015

Esta’ a Economia Construída Sobre Um Monumental Equivoco?

sexta-feira, novembro 20th, 2015

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Muito bom artigo, comparando o sistema econômico humano atual com sistemas e evolução biológica, projetando a Matrix/DNA nas ciências econômicas, merece ser aqui traduzido:

Is Economics Built On A “Monumental Mistake?”

http://bigthink.com/errors-we-live-by/self-organization-in-biology-vs-economics-darwin-vs-smith

This is diablog 8 between David Sloan Wilson (DSW) and me (JB).

Este e’ um diablog ( diablog sao pullquotes da BigThink que diferencia dialogo de debate. Debate e’ quando os participantes tentam impor suas tendencias particulares e dialogo e’ quando os vários participantes com suas varias diferentes teorias tentam selecionar o melhor de dada uma e construir uma teoria final), 8 entre David Sloan Wilson (sigla DSW. David e’ o líder do Evolution Institute) e eu (sigla JB):

1) JB: You’ve called an idea that’s cherished in economics “a monumental mistake.” Specifically, the belief that Adam Smith’s “invisible hand” ensures markets self-organize for the best overall outcomes.

1) JB: Você tem definido uma área que e’ idolatrada em economia ” um monumental erro”. Especificamente, a crença de que a “mão invisivel”, por Adam Smith, assegura que os mercados se auto-organizem para o melhor beneficio de todos.

2) JB: Biological self-organization — Darwin’s “invisible hand” — often delivers disaster. What can self-organization, or spontaneous order, in biology teach economics?

2) JB: A auto-organização biológica – que ‘e a “mão invisível” segundo Darwin, geralmente produz desastres. O que pode a auto-organização, ou ordem espontânea, da biologia ensinar para a economia?

3) DSW:  Self-organization isn’t intrinsically good (it can be functional or dysfunctional). 4) DSW: It is indeed a monumental mistake to think that unbridled self-interest will robustly benefit the common good. Instead, it can cause dysfunctional self-organization. 5) DSW: Nevertheless, biology provides breathtaking examples of invisible hand self-organization.  Multicellular organisms and social insect colonies work beautifully as multi-agent societies without their members having the welfare of their society in mind. We can say that confidently because cells and insects don’t even have minds in the human sense! 6) DSW: Self-organization leads to group-functional outcomes in these examples because the group is the unit of selection. Lower-level behaviors that work well
at the group level are winnowed from the much larger set of behaviors that don’t work. But when biological systems are not units of selection, e.g., most ecosystems, they don’t function well as units, as you correctly say.

7) DSW: Like bodies and beehives, human groups function well to the degree that their properties have been winnowed by between-group selection. [Friedrich] Hayek saw this evolutionary aspect of economics, but few understand it correctly.

8) DSW: The bottom line: Spontaneous order worth wanting is possible, but it must be selected. That sounds contradictory, but it makes perfect sense, evolutionarily.

9) JB: I get that that’s how it works in biology. But economists, despite sometimes using biology-like language, are mainly physics-like thinkers. And spontaneous order in physics isn’t “selected.”

10) DSW: You’re right. Economists will never get it right until they switch their mentality from physics to evolution (see Newton pattern vs. Darwin pattern).

11) JB: Robert Frank’s The Darwin Economy distinguishes two “invisible hand” types. Sometimes individual incentives combine to generate good group outcomes. Sometimes they undermine group goals. Bad invisible hands create spontaneous disorder, which local incentives can’t cure (see Markets Dumb As Trees?).

12) DSW: Exactly. Incentives are like mutations. For every one that works, many are counterproductive.

13) JB: Smith’s invisible hand claims selfish incentives have the unintended consequence of group-level benefits. But Darwin’s invisible hand shows they often don’t. Meanwhile markets shouldn’t be interfered with, because of bad “unintended consequences.”

14) DSW: Oddly muddled. Complex systems always include indirect effects (which public policy must monitor and mitigate).

15) JB: Perhaps economists believe people wouldn’t knowingly damage their own long-term interests. But empirically people do, often(sometimes encouraged by economists).

16) DSW: An evolutionary or empirical/behavioural perspective would never make that error.

17) JB: And unlike the rest of biology, humans aren’t limited to mindless random trial and error and “selection.” Our evolved learning,foresight, and coordination abilities mean we can intelligently guide systems away from ruin (vigilantly adjusting to mitigate bad, unintended consequences).

18) DSW: True. But only if we can become wise managers of evolutionary processes.

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Ver outros artigops relacionados abaixo, principalmente o grifado e ler os comentarios postados no artigo:

Earlier diablogs covered: (1) evolution’s score keeping (relative fitness), (2) its built-in team aspects, (3) its self-destructivecompetitions, (4) its blind logic, (5) how division of labor complications, (6) why economics needs a version of evolution’s “inclusive fitness,” and (7) why whatever your politics, you needneedism.

Astronomia e Formação de Sistemas Astronomicos: Prova de que nao ha’ provas

sexta-feira, novembro 20th, 2015

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Para a cosmovisao da Matrix/DNA ser comprovada, e’ preciso que suas previsões sobre os modelos dos sistemas astronômicos e processo de formação estejam corretas. Esta tarefa se torna mais difícil porque a teoria sugere que existiram dois processos de formação ( simbiose e reciclagem). Mas todas as outras teorias, inclusive a acadêmica oficial tem este problema porque nunca foi observada a formação sequer de um planeta, o qual, segundo os cientistas, deve demorar 10 milhões de anos. Este artigo esclarece bem esta situação.

 

Astronomers in U.S. watch the birth of a new planet

An artist's impression of planets forming in a circumstellar disk like the one surrounding the star LkCa 15.— Photo: NASA

An artist’s impression of planets forming in a circumstellar disk like the one surrounding the star LkCa 15.— Photo: NASA

– ” The discovery is a boon for scientists who have never before had a real star system against which they can check theories of how the universe came to be dotted with different worlds.”